Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843Get rights and content

Abstract

Aims

To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045.

Methods

A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20–79 years.

Results

The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045.

Conclusions

Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.

Keywords

Diabetes
Prevalence
Projections
Undiagnosed
Impaired glucose tolerance
International Diabetes Federation

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Reem Almutairi, Pablo Aschner Montoya, Abdul Basit, Stéphane Besançon, Christian Bommer, Wenche Borgnakke, Edward Boyko, Juliana Chan, Hema Divakar, Alireza Esteghamati, Nita Forouhi, Laercio Franco, Edward Gregg, Mohamed Hassanein, Calvin Ke, Dinky Levitt, Lee-Ling Lim, Graham D. Ogle, David Owens, Meda Pavkov, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Ambady Ramachandran, Wolfgang Rathmann, Musarrat Riaz, David Simmons, Alan Sinclair, Eugene Sobngwi, Rebecca Thomas, Heather Ward, Sarah Wild, Xilin Yang, Lili Yuen and Ping Zhang.

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