Introduction
Artificial intelligence (AI) has found applications in a myriad of fields from medicine to mental health.1 2 While numerous studies have examined these diverse applications, our research is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to focus specifically on the use of AI to assess the prognosis of depressive disorders. This focus is crucial for helping patients to make informed decisions about their treatment and enhancing the transparency of the therapeutic process.3 4 Ultimately, it fosters a collaborative approach to healthcare, empowering patients and medical professionals to make joint informed decisions.5–8
Major depressive disorders (MDDs) are characterised as severe affective disorders manifesting in symptoms such as persistent low mood, anhedonia, emotional void, disruptions in sleep patterns and diminished appetite.9 The disorder has substantial ramifications on multiple facets of an individual’s life, including emotional well-being, social interactions, academic achievement and overall developmental trajectory.10 Epidemiologically, depressive disorders exhibit high prevalence rates and are associated with significant economic burden, compromised quality of life, medical comorbidities and increased mortality rates.11 12 Meta-analytical data incorporating 90 studies, with a cumulative sample size of 1 112 573 adults, indicated gender-specific prevalence rates of 14.4% for women and 11.5% for men.13
The age of onset for MDD spans from mid-adolescence to mid-adulthood, although nearly 40% of affected individuals report experiencing their inaugural episode prior to the age of 20.14 Risk factors implicated in the aetiology of MDD include genetic predispositions, personality traits, psychopathological elements, comorbid psychiatric and physiological conditions, and specific life events such as elevated stress levels, historical trauma and a history of MDD among first-degree relatives.15–17
The multifaceted nature of recovery for individuals grappling with enduring mental health difficulties is subject to heterogeneous interpretations. Within the clinical framework, recovery is predominantly conceptualised in terms of the alleviation of symptoms and the remediation of functional impairments.18 19 The complete lack of psychological indicators is rarely characteristic of the typical healthy demographic. Thus, the definition of recovery is influenced by the established severity threshold of symptoms and is reliant on the categorisation and properties of the assessment tools employed. However, from the vantage point of lived experience, recovery assumes an individualised and potentially ongoing journey towards the reclamation of a meaningful life characterised by purpose and active societal participation regardless of persistent symptoms.19 20 Literature on pharmacological interventions for MDD has evidenced a cumulative remission rate of 67% following antidepressant therapy.21 Additional empirical studies have indicated that, following a 3-month course of antidepressant treatment, 66% of patients achieved remission while 59.5% regained normative levels of functionality.22 Notably, incomplete remission in the context of MDD is prevalent; approximately one-third of individuals diagnosed continue to exhibit residual symptoms even during periods identified as remission.23
In recent decades, there have been significant advancements in the research and clinical management of depression, particularly in primary healthcare settings. A plethora of pharmacological and psychotherapeutic interventions have been validated through rigorous randomised controlled trials, thereby gaining inclusion in established treatment guidelines.24 25 These interventions have subsequently been extensively adopted in clinical practice.26 Notably, primary care serves as the predominant healthcare setting for the treatment of depressive disorders, accommodating the majority of affected individuals. Statistical data indicate that 73% of patients receive treatment for depression exclusively in primary care, while a substantially smaller proportion—24% and 13%, respectively—are managed by psychiatrists or other specialised mental health practitioners.27 28
The clinician’s stance on a patient’s recuperative potential is complex and has many dimensions.29 From a utilitarian perspective, the medical professional’s acumen in prognosticating a patient’s likely therapeutic course—commonly referred to as ‘prognosis’—is indispensable clinical competency.28 Ethical considerations compel healthcare providers to thoroughly explain both the attendant risks and merits of prospective treatments to patients, thereby enabling the exercise of informed consent and fostering a collaborative model of decision-making.30 Providing a nuanced and forthright prognosis serves to bolster patient morale and cultivate optimism in instances where full recovery is plausible while tempering expectations in more adverse clinical scenarios.6 7 31 However, it should be acknowledged that clinicians’ prognostic judgements are inevitably influenced by their own foundational beliefs and assumptions.32 33
Extensive empirical research has corroborated the efficacy of psychotherapeutic interventions, underscoring the positive correlation between a robust therapeutic alliance and favourable treatment outcomes.34–36 These findings precipitated a growing emphasis on recovery-oriented practices which are linked to an array of beneficial patient outcomes, including enhanced functional capabilities and reduced hospitalisation rates.37 38 Despite these advancements, it is important to acknowledge that the prevailing mental healthcare paradigm, rooted largely in the biomedical model not only foregrounds clinical recovery and symptom remission but is also influenced by clinicians’ attitudes, including potential stigmatisation towards patients exhibiting delayed treatment engagement.25 28 29 As such, practitioners’ beliefs about patients’ recovery potential and the depth of the therapeutic relationship play a pivotal role in the overall efficacy of the treatment regimen.6–8
AI has become ubiquitous across multiple domains, including but not limited to political science, economics, healthcare and biological sciences.1 2 Previous scholarly investigations have explored the application of AI in the realm of applied psychology, either examining rudimentary clinical capabilities.3 4 or focusing on decision-making processes in intricate clinical scenarios, such as those involving depressive disorders and suicidal ideation.5 To date, there is a literature gap concerning the capability of AI to facilitate the process of recovery or healing in the context of mental health disorders. However, a burgeoning body of literature has underscored the significant therapeutic implications of a clinician’s belief in the patient’s potential for recovery6 7 25 as well as the deleterious consequences arising when such beliefs are absent.34
In light of the growing integration of AI technologies in healthcare sectors—particularly given the nascent advancements in emotion recognition and mental health risk stratification3 4—it has become critical to rigorously scrutinise how various AI systems conceptualise and interpret human resilience and prospects for recovery.5 This line of inquiry assumes paramount importance as both healthcare providers and patients increasingly rely on AI for diagnostic consultations and therapeutic interventions. These understandings not only shape the future direction of patient care but also serve as a cornerstone for psychoeducational initiatives, clinical guidance and targeted interventions.
The present study was predicated on an evaluation of perspectives among mental health professionals in Australia, comprising 328 mental health nurses, 535 psychiatrists, 434 general practitioners (GPs), 211 clinical psychologists and 952 laypeople as reported by Caldwell and Jorm.39 Respondents were surveyed concerning their beliefs about prognosis, long-term outcomes and potential discriminatory practices in the context of case vignettes featuring individuals diagnosed with depression.
The objectives of this study are to:
Compare the assessment of the prognosis for individuals with depression between four large language models (LLMs) (ChatGPT-3.5, ChatGPT-4, Claude and Bard), mental health professionals (including GPs, psychiatrists, clinical psychologists and mental health nurses) and the general public. Furthermore, this comparison will also consider evaluations of prognoses with and without treatment.
Analyse the evaluations by the four LLMs, mental health professionals and the general public regarding the positive and negative long-term outcomes for individuals with depression.